Q4 2019 Bozeman Price Trends Report – Daily Bozeman Real Estate Market Updates – Home Price Trend History With Expandable Charts – Bozeman Bubble?
Bozeman Price Trends: Reports for Statistics, Market, and Conditions for Bozeman, Montana Real Estate, including Condos and Townhouses and Luxury Real Estate in and of of Bozeman’s Subdivisions.
Bozeman Real Estate Bubble, Crash? …How Clear Is Your Crystal Ball?
Inside the Bozeman city limits (Chart 1), median single-family sales prices began 2019 at ~$475,000 and dropped to $459,300 by October 2019 (YTD-October median price is $465,000). Comparing Bozeman residential median prices, January 2019 to YTD October 2019 median prices, we find a ~$10,000 drop in the Bozeman median residential price.
In 2019, outside Bozeman’s city limits (Chart 2), median single-family (precludes Condo/Townhouse) real estate prices were $544,900 in January, then dropped about $30,000 to ~$514,000 in July 2019 (stat charts available) and rose to $607,000 by the end of October 2019 (Chart 1) (YTD median price is $560,000, October 2019).
From late 2018 into early 2019, median home prices remained flat and prices for Bozeman homes for sale were predicted to rise around 4.5% over 2018 prices.
The median sales price increase inside the city from January 2018 to January 2019 was ~12% and outside the city, ~7.5%, but from January 2019 to June 2019, prices inside the city had increased only ~2%, and continue rising, but outside the city, the ~5.5% price rise capped and is now decreasing.
Is There An Imminent Bozeman Housing Bubble?
Things to consider when predicting a housing bubble in Bozeman (…or pretty much anywhere in the US) is to try to answer these questions and others: Is the home’s “price” justified? Is the home’s “price” more than 3x’s your income? Has the home’s price increased 2x’s or 3x’s more than local rents have increased? These are some of the questions to answer regarding a possible housing bubble in Bozeman, or in other US housing markets.
Bubbles are generally fueled by supply and demand; investor speculation; and buyer exuberance. In Bozeman, supply is moderate, demand is moderate to high, and exuberance is moderate to high. Speculation is difficult to assess.
Is the continued rise in home prices inside the city limits of Bozeman indicative of a Bozeman housing bubble? Well…the housing demand inside Bozeman is still high and prices have responded; only time will tell if this is a continued Bozeman bubble, but Bozeman builders continue with new inner-city projects.
Also, as bubbles go, interest rates, financial patterns, political instability, and other housing market influencers can change on a daily basis, effecting Bozeman’s housing market.
It’s not clear if there exists a true “Bozeman real estate bubble,” at least not yet. And while it’s true all Bozeman real estate prices and demands are increasing, Bozeman’s home builders are vigorously responding to satisfy the demand for new homes and other types of real estate.
Unlike cities like Boulder, Colorado, where the area of in-city growth is limited in all directions, and the price of land, if you can find it, is astronomical, Bozeman’s area of growth is primarily to the northwest, outside the city (for now) toward Belgrade, MT.
This area, NW of Bozeman, outside city limits and in Gallatin County, contains large tracts of farmland, which, more than likely, will be consumed by future Bozeman growth.
Prices for this land, though increasing in value as the city moves NW, remain fairly reasonable. Gallatin County land-use laws are still reasonable compared to Bozeman and especially compared to Bend, Oregon’s strict land-use laws, designed to protect green space and farmland.
One way to investigate if a Bozeman housing bubble” is imminent is to call me at 406.579.9683.
Looking back: similar to 2019’s prediction, the 2018 Bozeman real estate forecast called for continued robust growth and construction, especially in the western portion of the City of Bozeman in and around the area of Bozeman’s new high school.
This prediction was accurate. As of the beginning of Q4 2018, according to the city of Bozeman Housing Report, the Building Division approved 1281 permits, whereas in 2017, the city approved 1276 building permits. As of Q1 2019, the City had granted 449 Building Permits.
From early 2017 to early fall 2017, sales of mid-range Bozeman residential homes, town houses and condos outstripped the housing supply.
In 2019, the SW Montana real estate market remains robust and with low inventory in the mid-price range Bozeman’s luxury real estate sales are sluggish, which makes for an excellent time to investigate the Bozeman luxury market.
Bozeman Real Estate Listings – Belgrade MT Real Estate Listings – Big Sky Real Estate Listings – Gallatin Gateway Montana Real Estate Listings – Livingston Montana Real Estate Listings – Manhattan MT Real Estate Listings – Three Forks Montana Real Estate Listings – Big Sky Real Estate Market Report
PREVIOUS YEAR’S BOZEMAN PRICE TRENDS AND SALES HISTORY 2008 – 2016
Since 2012, prices for Bozeman homes have increased over 60%. The Bozeman real estate market trend for single-family, residential homes has been consistently upward since 2012, and increasing Bozeman home values have followed this trend.
In June 2016, Q1 and Q2 Bozeman homes and land inventory was declining and home sales continued increasing. The top price for a Bozeman home sold in 2016 was $4,495,000.
In 2015, the Median Bozeman homes price was approximately $300,000. In early May 2015 we had a 75% increase in the number of Bozeman, Montana building permits issued as compared to May 2014. Bozeman’s construction industry was very busy in 2015: there were over 250 single-family housing starts by May 2015. More than 60% of Montana’s total building permits issued in year 2015 were issued in Gallatin County. In 2015, in Gallatin County, Montana, 1272 residential permits were granted. The highest price received for a Bozeman home in 2015 was $6,200,000.
Though inventory in late 2014 was lower than earlier in 2014, continued sales demand and fewer Bozeman, Montana homes listed for sale contributed to a relatively long run of price increases until late Summer 2014, after which prices began stabilizing.
Prices for Bozeman homes hit another all time high in August 2014. The inventory of Bozeman homes declined into October 2014. Then supply and demand levels indicated signs of price stabilization for luxury real estate, residential dwellings, condos, and townhouses.
Late 2013: The Bozeman, MT market had been cooling off a bit in late 2013 as more Bozeman homes were available and demand declined. We saw prices move lower as a result. This trend was expected to continue into 2014, especially if the index fell into the Buyer’s zone. Recommendation was to watch for a persistent up-turn in Market Action to signal prices rising again.
In 2012, Bozeman home sales were booming, with the highest home prices in the Montana. The region was once again attracting investors, and those with a few extra dollars to spend on Bozeman Montana real estate from Montana’s oil business. The artsy counter-culture community of Bozeman was a draw to many out of state people searching for a second home. Bozeman real estate values were increasing, and the region’s forecast was to increase the most for any area of the state, averaging a 2.9% increase by the end of 2012.
In 2011, Housing Predictor’s Montana rankings had four cities’ home values trending upward: Great Falls at a 2.9% increase, followed by Missoula, poised to rise 2.4%, Bozeman home values rising 2.0%, and Billings at a 1.6% increase in home prices.
Pertaining to Montana real estate prices for 2010, this housing forecaster had Montana real estate prices dropping from 2.5% to 3.6% across the four, aforementioned Montana cities.
Based on US housing data received during 2009, Housing Predictor published a top 25 US Housing Market ranking. Five Montana cities placed in the top 25 for 2009: Bozeman 14th, Billings 18th, Livingston 20th, Great Falls 22nd, and Missoula 25th.
In 2008, Housing Predictor Montana Rankings had five Montana cities in the US top 25 and two within the top 10 (you may recall that in January 2009, Billings ranked 3rd and Bozeman ranked 9th, placing both cities in the top 10 for US home values appreciation in 2009).
Taunya Fagan, 406.579.9683, for all your Bozeman home needs!
All information contained herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, however, information is not guaranteed by Taunya Fagan Bozeman Real Estate, ESTATE House Brokers, or other Agents or Sellers. Offering is subject to error, omissions, prior sales, price change or withdrawal without notice and approval of purchase by Seller. We urge independent verification of each and every item submitted, to the satisfaction of any prospective purchaser. Equal Housing Opportunity.