August 26th, 2020

Price Trends Bozeman Real Estate

Price Trends Bozeman Real Estate

2020 Bozeman Price Trends Report – Real Estate Market Updates – Residential Price Trends & Median Sales Prices – Bozeman Housing Boom!

Bozeman price trends: statistical reports, market conditions for Bozeman, Montana in 2020 – Bozeman bubble to Bozeman real estate boom! – Covid-19 fueling Bozeman’s housing explosion!

History, Median Sales Price Bozeman Homes, Condos, Townhouses
Chart 1: “Median sales price” Bozeman residential, inside and outside city limits.

Inside Bozeman city limits (chart 1), the median residential sales price trend began 2020 at $400,000 and $515,000 outside Bozeman. In Q3 2020, the median sales price inside the city continues trending up a bit–$5000–now $405,000, and outside Bozeman the upward trend is greater —$20,000–to $535,000.

One-year Bozeman price trends: Comparing intracity Bozeman residential median sales prices, August 2019 to August 2020, we find a $18,000 increase, from $389,000, August 2019 to $407,000, August 2020.

Want Condo/Townhouse Data?

Outside Bozeman’s city limits, mid-Q3 2020, the residential median sales price is $541,000, almost a $38,000 increase over August 2019’s $503,000.

Bozeman Housing Bubble Turns Into Housing Boom Due To Covid-19!

Bozeman Real Estate Median Home, Condo, Townhouse Sales Prices.
Chart 2: Bozeman “median sales price” of homes, condos, townhomes, inside and outside city limits.

Due to Covid-19, Bozeman’s real estate market has exploded, as indicated by the increase in pending sales, Q3 2020 (chart 3). This mild decrease should adjust upward as the summer progresses.

Market due to Coronavirus pandemic: Is the continued rise in real estate prices inside city limits indicative of a boom? Well…the housing demand inside Bozeman is ultra-high (note chart 3’s recent pending sales line!) and prices have responded. Bozeman builders continue with a flurry of intra-city housing starts, condo communities, and commercial/retail projects…this must be a BOOM!

Where will this Covid-19-driven Bozeman real estate boom, and it ranges from residential housing to commercial real estate, take us? 

Bozeman Real Estate Pending Sales Trends All Property Types
Chart 3: “Pending sales” Bozeman real estate, all types.

Some facts, some thoughts prior to our present Covid-driven boom, based upon the question, “is Bozeman’s housing bubble going to burst soon?”

Three things to always consider when determining a housing bubble:

  1. Is the home’s price justified?
  2. Is the home’s price more than 3x’s your income?
  3. Has the home’s price increased 2x’s or 3x’s more than local rents have increased?

Bubbles are generally fueled by supply and demand; investor speculation; and buyer exuberance. In Bozeman, supply was moderate, demand was moderate to high, and exuberance was moderate to high.

Also, as bubbles go, interest rates, financial patterns, political instability, and other housing market influencers can change on a daily basis, effecting any housing market.

At the beginning of 2020 it was still unclear if a “real estate bubble” existed in Bozeman because real estate prices and property demands continued increasing, Bozeman’s builders were vigorously responding to satisfy demand for new homes and commercial real estate, and a pacman-like appetite for Gallatin County land was increasing.

June 2020 sees the move from Bozeman bubble to Bozeman boom (..but by no means a burst!)

Unlike cities like Boulder, Colorado, where the area of in-city growth is limited in all directions, and the price of land, if you can find it, is astronomical, Bozeman’s area of growth is primarily to the northwest, outside the city mostly toward Belgrade, MT but increasingly toward Bozeman’s south, too.

The area, NW of Bozeman, outside city limits and in Gallatin County, contains large tracts of farmland, which more than likely will be consumed by Bozeman’s residential housing boom. Presently, land prices are steadily increasing as the city moves both northwest and south through the County, annexing land.

The time of reasonable prices has ceased. Gallatin County’s land-use laws will change in positive and negative ways, depending on your position, but more than likely, land use trends will head toward Bend, Oregon’s strict land-use laws, designed to protect green space and farmland.

Previous Year’s Bozeman Price Trends and Sales Predictions 2008 – 2019

Median Bozeman Home Sales Price by Property Type
Chart 4 – home, condo, townhome: “median sales price by property type.

In 2019, the SW Montana real estate market was robust and with low inventory in the mid-price range. Bozeman’s luxury real estate sales were sluggish.

From 2012 to 2019, prices for Bozeman homes increased over 60%. The Bozeman real estate market trend for single-family, residential homes moved consistently, and increasing Bozeman home values followed that trend.

Inside Bozeman city limits, single-family median home sales prices began 2019 at $429,000 and at $477,000 by June 2020.

Comparing Bozeman residential median prices January 2019 to November 2019, we found a ~$31,000 increase in Bozeman’s intracity median home price.

In 2019, outside Bozeman’s city limits median single-family homes real estate prices were $517,000 in January, then rose about $39,000 to ~$556,000 in July 2019 (the year’s high) and only dropped ~$500 by the end of November 2019.

The median sales price increase inside the city from January 2018 to January 2019 was ~12% and ~13% outside the city, as well, but from January 2019 to June 2019, prices inside the city had increased only $10,000 but continued rising for the remainder of 2019.

Bozeman Average Home Sales Price by Property Type
Chart 5 – Bozeman home, condo, townhouse “average sales price by property type.”

Similar to 2019’s prediction, the 2018 Bozeman real estate forecast called for continued robust growth and construction, especially in the western portion of the City of Bozeman in and around the area of Bozeman’s new high school.

The median sales price increase inside the city from January 2018 to January 2019 was ~12% and ~13% outside the city, as well, but from January 2019 to June 2019, prices inside the city had increased only $10,000 but continued rising for the remainder of 2019.

As of the beginning of Q4 2018, according to the city of Bozeman Housing Report, the Building Division had approved 1281 permits.

From late 2018 into early 2019, median home prices remained flat and prices for Bozeman homes in 2019 were predicted to rise around 4.5% over 2018 prices.

From early 2017 to early fall 2017, sales of mid-range Bozeman residential homes, town houses and condos outstripped the housing supply. In 2017, the city approved 1276 building permits. 

Bozeman Real Estate Listings – Belgrade MT Real Estate Listings – Big Sky Real Estate Listings – Gallatin Gateway Montana Real Estate Listings – Livingston Montana Real Estate Listings – Manhattan MT Real Estate Listings – Three Forks Montana Real Estate Listings – Big Sky Real Estate Market Report

Average Percent of Last List Price By Year Built
Chart 6 – “Average percent of last list price by year built” for home, condo, townhome.

In June 2016, Q1 and Q2 Bozeman homes and land inventory was declining and home sales continued increasing.

The top price for a Bozeman home sold in 2016 was $4,495,000 –  More Bozeman Real Estate History

In 2015, the Median Bozeman homes price was approximately $300,000. In early May 2015 we had a 75% increase in the number of Bozeman, Montana building permits issued as compared to May 2014.

Bozeman’s construction industry was very busy in 2015: there were over 250 single-family housing starts by May 2015. More than 60% of Montana’s total building permits issued in year 2015 were issued in Gallatin County.

In 2015, in Gallatin County, Montana, 1272 residential permits were granted. The highest price received for a Bozeman home in 2015 was $6,200,000.

Though inventory in late 2014 was lower than earlier in 2014, continued sales demand and fewer Bozeman, Montana homes listed for sale contributed to a relatively long run of price increases until late Summer 2014, after which prices began stabilizing.

Prices for Bozeman homes hit another all time high in August 2014. The inventory of Bozeman homes declined into October 2014. Then supply and demand levels indicated signs of price stabilization for luxury real estate, residential dwellings, condos, and townhouses.

Dollar Volume Closed Sales Bozeman Homes Price Range
Chart 7 – “Dollar volume of closed sales by price range.”

Late 2013: The Bozeman, MT market had been cooling off a bit in late 2013 as more Bozeman homes were available and demand declined. We saw prices move lower as a result. This trend was expected to continue into 2014, especially if the index fell into the Buyer’s zone. Recommendation was to watch for a persistent up-turn in Market Action to signal prices rising again.

In 2012, Bozeman home sales were booming, with the highest home prices in the Montana. The region was once again attracting investors, and those with a few extra dollars to spend on Bozeman Montana real estate from Montana’s oil business.

The artsy counter-culture community of Bozeman was a draw to many out of state people searching for a second home. Bozeman real estate values were increasing, and the region’s forecast was to increase the most for any area of the state, averaging a 2.9% increase by the end of 2012.

In 2011, Housing Predictor’s Montana rankings had four cities’ home values trending upward: Great Falls at a 2.9% increase, followed by Missoula, poised to rise 2.4%, Bozeman home values rising 2.0%, and Billings at a 1.6% increase in home prices.

Pertaining to Montana real estate prices for 2010, this housing forecaster had Montana real estate prices dropping from 2.5% to 3.6% across the four, aforementioned Montana cities.

Based on US housing data received during 2009, Housing Predictor published a top 25 US Housing Market ranking. Five Montana cities placed in the top 25 for 2009: Bozeman 14th, Billings 18th, Livingston 20th, Great Falls 22nd, and Missoula 25th.

In 2008, Housing Predictor Montana Rankings had five Montana cities in the US top 25 and two within the top 10 (you may recall that in January 2009, Billings ranked 3rd and Bozeman ranked 9th, placing both cities in the top 10 for US home values appreciation in 2009).

Taunya Fagan, 406.579.9683, for all your Bozeman home needs!

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