Bozeman Real Estate Forecast

Bozeman Real Estate Market Forecast 2020 – Bozeman Home Sales History – Montana’s Hottest Housing Market is in Bozeman

Since 2020 is an election year, and to stem potential cries of bias toward one political party or the other, Fed rates will probably remain around 1.6% in 2020, with mortgage rates staying under 4%; plus job growth is strengthening and consumers are spending, indicating cuts are unnecessary at this time. You may recall that 2019 was a year of rate cuts: July 31, 2019 the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, the first interest rate cut since 2008. Then, the Federal Reserve cut rates two more times for a total interest rate cut of .75% in 2019. February 2020 update…the Corona virus scare pushes upward bond activity, lowering rates, which have begun rising as the virus scare diminishes.

FreddieMac US 5-Year Average Weekly Mortgage Rate History

US Mortgage Weekly Average Rates – 5 Year History – FreddieMac

Since 2020 is a major election year, the Bozeman real estate forecast suggests a softening real estate market in Bozeman, with continued growth but at a slower pace, with flatter home prices and a slight decrease in Bozeman construction starts compared to 2019.

Nationally, supply of homes is expected to increase in 2020 to 1.42 million; up from 1.27 million in 2019. National Association of Realtors (NAR) suggests a 1.8% decline in US home sales in 2010.

2019’s Bozeman Real Estate Market Forecast

The 2019 Bozeman market saw median home prices continuing to increase but at a slightly lower rate than in recent years. Supply remained low compared to high demand, especially within Bozeman city limits. Percent of list price that sellers received dropped in older homes, but, overall, percent of price dropped or remained flat in 2019. Please check Charts 1 and 5 for what happened Q1 to late Q4 2019.

Bozeman Real Estate Median Home Sales Price by Year

Chart 1 – Median Bozeman Home Sales Price by Year Built

The United States housing market outlook in early 2019 indicated that loan requests were predicted to be at their highest level since early Q2 2010. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage interest rate averaged 4.74%, the lowest since April 2018.

In 2019, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) chief economist, Mike Fratantoni, said, “The spring home-buying season is almost upon us, and if rates stay lower, inventory continues to grow, and the job market maintains its strength, we do expect to see a solid spring market.” In Bozeman’s vibrant real estate market, this prediction came true for the most part, keeping the Bozeman real estate market very warm once again.

In Bozeman in 2018: Median Bozeman home prices increased from 8.5 to 11% and average sales prices increased approximately 25%. The supply of Bozeman real estate decreased by approximately 20-25%. “Percent of List Price Received” was around 98%.

2018 Bozeman Real Estate Market – Check Out Bozeman Price Trends

The Bozeman real estate market prediction was for continued growth and Bozeman new home construction was to continue upward at a strong rate in 2018. Bozeman home prices continued rising through year’s-end 2018. The housing prediction was for Bozeman home prices to flatten to around 2017 Q4 prices, but this did not happen; by December 2018, prices continued upward for all housing. See “Median Sales Price – By Year Built,” specifically green line in chart below.

The 2017 US National Home Sales and Housing Market

Supply of Bozeman Homes for Sale by Month

Chart 2 – Month’s Supply of Bozeman Homes For Sale

Based upon the positive US housing forecast for 2017, the Bozeman real estate forecast followed the trend, especially because Bozeman is one of the United States’ fastest growing micropolitan cities.

In early 2015, Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) stated, “Over 80% of millennial and Gen X buyers consider their home purchase a good financial investment, and the desire to own a home of their own was the top reason given by Millennials for their purchase.”

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Previous Years’ Bozeman Housing Market History

2017 Bozeman Real Estate Market Trends

Nationwide, 2017 predictions were that homes sales would be robust, according to the the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA), National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and others.

After being elected November 2017, Donald Trump was considering a bill to forgive student loan debt after 15 years. Many Millennials and younger adults still have difficulty paying both for high student loan debt and home mortgages.

Bozeman Real Estate: Closed Bozeman Home Sales By Year Built

Chart 3 – Bozeman Real Estate: Closed Bozeman Homes Sales By Year Built

On the other hand, Gen Y buyers should keep home and condominium sales strong into 2020.

In 2017, in some major markets, top forecasters indicated home sale appreciation at around 10%. Some aspects affecting the US economy were the possibility of further interest rate increases, US Government deregulation, and labor shortages.

2016 Bozeman Real Estate Market Prediction

NAR predicted 2016 US home sales would be about 5.8 Million, and in 2017 NAR predicted housing sales would increase to about 6 million. MBA was banking on 6.5 million home sales.

In 2016, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were predicting 6.2 million. Housing starts were predicted to increase 1.5 million/year into 2040, and 160,000 homes would be constructed/year up to 2040.

Bozeman Homes For Sale By Year Built

Chart 4 – Bozeman MT Homes For Sale By Year Built

2015 Single Family Bozeman Home Price History

Statewide in 2015, Billings home prices rose 4.7%, prices in Great Falls increased slightly–by 0.9%–(2016 has its residential housing prices increasing 4.6%), Missoula’s home prices grew by 3.6%, Bozeman home prices appreciated 4%.

2014 Bozeman Real Estate Sale Prices

Though inventory in late 2014 was lower than earlier in 2014, continued sales demand and fewer Bozeman, Montana homes listed for sale contributed to a relatively long run of price increases until late Summer 2014.

The inventory of Bozeman homes declined into October 2014, and at that time supply and demand levels showed signs of price stabilization for Bozeman luxury homes, residential dwellings, condos, and townhouses. Prices for Bozeman homes for sale hit another all time high in August 2014.

Looking Back on Bozeman Real Estate Market Forecasts

2013 Bozeman Real Estate Market

Bozeman Real Estate Prices: Average Percent of Last List Price By Year Home Built

Chart 5 – Bozeman Real Estate Prices: Average Percent of Last List Price By Year Home Built

In late 2013, the market cooled off as supply caught up with demand. Bozeman home prices fell somewhat, but overall 2013 was the best real estate sales year in southwest Montana since 2006.

2012 Bozeman Home Sale Market

In 2012, Bozeman home sales were booming, with the highest home prices in the Montana. The region was once again attracting investors, and those with a few extra dollars to spend on Bozeman Montana real estate from Montana’s oil business. The artsy community of Bozeman was a draw to many out-of-state people searching for second homes. Bozeman home values were forecast to inflate the most for any area of Montana, averaging a 2.9% increase by years end.

2011 Bozeman Real Estate Market

In 2011, Housing Predictor’s Montana rankings had four Montana cities home values trending upward: Great Falls at a 2.9% increase, followed by Missoula, which was poised to rise 2.4%, Bozeman home values predicted to rise 2.0% , and indications pointed to Billings having a 1.6% increase in its residential housing prices.

2010 Bozeman MT Home Prices

Pertaining to Montana real estate prices for 2010, Housing Forecaster had Montana real estate prices dropping an average of 2.5% across Montana, with its top four cities all posting declines: Billings down 4.2%, Great Falls declining 3.6%, Missoula dropping 3.1%, and Bozeman down 2.3%.

2009 Bozeman Real Estate Prices

Based on US housing data received during 2009, Housing Predictor published a top 25 US Housing Market ranking. Five Montana cities placed in the top 25 for 2009: Bozeman 14th, Billings 18th, Livingston, MT 20th, Great Falls 22nd, and Missoula 25th.

2008 Bozeman Real Estate Market Trends

In 2008, Housing Predictor Montana Rankings had five Montana cities in the top 25 and two within the top 10 (you may recall that in January 2009, Billings ranked 3rd and Bozeman ranked 9th, placing both cities in the top 10 for US home values appreciation in 2009).

According to the National Association of Realtors in 2016, 89% percent of Millennials, 87% of Gen Xers, and 85% of Younger Boomers purchased their home through a real estate agent.

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