2023 Forecast for the Bozeman Real Estate Market
The Bozeman real estate forecast for 2023, with predictions and trends for Bozeman’ market: 1. Q1 2023, residential prices will flatten and begin declining. 2. Construction will continue strong. 3. Upward trend continues in number of listings (all types). 4. Continued demand for Bozeman land. 5. Downward trend in mortgage rates ⇓ 1% to 5.7% in Q3 2023. 6. Continued inflation but at a slower pace until Q4 2023.
Bozeman Residential Real Estate = Homes, Condos, and Townhomes
Chart 1: In March 2023, the median sales price for residential is $635,000 inside the city and $866,000 outside Bozeman.
This averages to an overall median residential price of $660,000 for the Bozeman area.
Ironically, considering the past 3 years, residential real estate prices have declined–close to the January 2022 price of $670,170–both inside and outside Bozeman.
In the second quarter of 2023, median prices for residential inside Bozeman could again–as in 2023–crest the $700,000 mark.
Outside Bozeman’s city limit by the end of Q2 2023, median prices could top $1,000,000–as they did in 2022.
In conclusion, the forecast calls for Bozeman’s overall median residential price to rise above and then drop back below $700,000 by Q4 of 2023.
Bozeman, Montana’s Housing Market Cooling in 2023
The national forecast by NAR’s Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, predicts the country’s 2023 US real estate market will continue slowing, “…leading to a moderation in home price growth and tipping housing market balance away from sellers… [and] home shoppers will enjoy advantages [but]…costs will remain high [so]…the 2023 housing market could become a “’nobody’s-market,’” not friendly to buyers nor to sellers.”
Bozeman’s 2023 real estate market will not match 2022’s record, mostly due to the national inflationary trend and high mortgage rates.
Bozeman’s Median Days On Market 2023
Chart 2: In March 2023 Median Days on Market (MDM) is 21 inside and outside Bozeman for an average of 21 for all Bozeman.
In January 2023, MDM was 81 days outside Bozeman and 32 inside and 57 for all Bozeman.
Back in March 2022: Inside Bozeman, the MDM number was 3 and outside city limits the number was 5.
This year, in 2023, days on market is increasing outside the city and decreasing inside Bozeman.
This trend may continue as those outside the city enjoy being away from Bozeman’s growth, and those inside the city may find the growth too much for them.
Bozeman’s Residential Inventory 2023
Chart 3: March 2023: Since the begi9nning of Q4 2022, we have had a falling housing inventory in Bozeman and this falling trend continues in late Q1 2023.
In March 2023 we have dropped from January’s 234 to 203.
Chances are that the high interest rates are keeping people in place, at least as economic woes unsettle the country.
In January 2023, we had 231 listings, which was ⇑ 152 listings more, or ⇑ 192.4%, than January 2022’s 79.
Total residential for sale numbers hit record lows in Q3 2020, and remained historically low until trending up in Q2 2022.
While presently decreasing in Q1, the number of listings /inventory may move upward again through the end of Q3 2023.
Following the construction trend of the last 3 years, multiple types of construction will continue moderately strong through the first 3 quarters.
Months supply of inventory will move up by 3 weeks through Q3.